By Jim Ellis
Nov. 9, 2020 — A few races were called over the weekend, while political overtime drags on for others.The uncalled Senate races will likely remain in their current position throughout this week. Currently, Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) holds a big lead over physician Al Gross (I/D), 62.3 – 32.1 percent, with a vote margin of 57,616. Despite the large spread, the race is not called because only 58 percent of the vote is reporting. The Alaska cut-off date for receiving ballots postmarked Nov. 3 is this Friday, Nov. 13. Therefore, it is presumed that we will not have a final declaration until the weekend at the earliest.
The North Carolina situation remains frozen. Sen. Thom Tillis (R) holds a 95,739-vote lead with all counted but those ballots that could come in through Nov. 12. It appears the universe of requested ballots not yet returned could only be a maximum of approximately 116,500. The ballots must now be in the mail stream as they would have to have been postmarked on Nov. 3. Mathematics suggest a Tillis victory will occur, but such a declaration is not yet official.
As we know, both Georgia Senate races will advance to their respective runoff elections on Jan. 5. The political battles feature Republican Sen. David Perdue (49.7 of requested ballots not yet returned) and Democrat Jon Ossoff (47.9 percent). The special election features Democratic Rev. Raphael Warnock (32.9 percent) and appointed Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler (25.9 percent).
The House races are not fully complete, as 24 contests remain in abeyance. At this point, Republicans have gained a net five seats among the 411 campaigns that have been decided. Of the remaining 24, the GOP candidates lead in 18, but many will likely flip back toward the Democrat as counting concludes. In the end, it is likely that the Republicans will gain between seven and nine seats, meaning they will hold 208 to 210 House seats as compared with 227 to 225 for the Democrats.
In the past few days, the following races have been declared and the winners are listed below:
AZ-6: Rep. David Schweikert (R)
CA-50: Darrell Issa (R) – Open Seat – Republican hold
GA-7: Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) – Open Seat – Democratic gain
IN-5: Victoria Spartz (R) – Open Seat – Republican hold
MI-3: Peter Meijer (R) – Open Seat – Republican gain
MI-8: Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D)
MI-11: Rep. Haley Stevens (D)
MN-1: Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R)
MN-2: Rep. Angie Craig (D)
NV-3: Rep. Susie Lee (D)
NV-4: Rep. Steven Horsford (D)
NJ-2: Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R)
NY-4: Rep. Kathleen Rice (D)
PA-7: Rep. Susan Wild (D)
PA-8: Rep. Matt Cartwright (D)
PA-10: Rep. Scott Perry (R)
PA-17: Rep. Conor Lamb (D)
WA-3: Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)
The remaining races are still undecided:
AK-AL: Rep. Don Young (R-Ft. Yukon) leads by 50,425 votes and has a 63.3 – 36.7 percent lead with 58 percent of the vote counted. Like the Senate race described above, this race likely won’t be completed until the weekend, but Rep. Young again appears headed for victory.
AZ-1: Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-Sedona) holds an 11,116-vote advantage, which should be enough to re-elect him once all votes are recorded. His percentage lead over Republican Tiffany Shedd is 51.7 – 48.4 percent.
California: Eight Golden State House races remain undecided and the California ballot reception deadline doesn’t close until Nov. 20. Therefore, it will likely be Thanksgiving before we see all of these campaigns completed. The leading candidate is listed below with their current vote margin. The opponent is in parenthesis):
• CA-4: Rep. Tom McClintock (R) – 55.7%; 39,069 vote margin (Brynne Kennedy)
• CA-8: Jay Obernolte (R) – 54.2%; 16,680 votes (Christine Bubser)
• CA-21: David Valadao (R) – 52.1%; 4,570 votes (Rep. T.J. Cox)
• CA-25: Rep. Mike Garcia (R) – 50.1%; 432 votes (Christy Smith)
• CA-34: Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D) – 52.9%; 10,207 votes (David Kim)
• CA-39: Young Kim (R) – 50.5%; 3,095 votes (Rep. Gil Cisneros)
• CA-42: Rep. Ken Calvert (R) – 55.4%; 24,065 votes (William O’Mara)
• CA-48: Michelle Steel (R) – 50.8%; 6,973 votes (Rep. Harley Rouda)
IA-2: With Democrat Rita Hart taking a lead of just 163 votes over Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks, counting was suspended. An error in one county, Jasper, has resulted in a full recount within the locality. More information will be provided when available.
IL-14: Though the race shows 100 percent reporting, the tight contest between state Sen. Jim Oberweis (R) and Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville) remains uncalled. At this point, Oberweis holds a 558-vote lead. Regardless of the preliminary outcome, we will very likely see a recount occur in this district.
LA-5: Luke Letlow, the former chief of staff to retiring Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-Alto), has qualified for the Dec. 5 runoff. It appears that state Rep. Lance Harris (R-Alexandria) will also advance, but the second position is not yet officially called. Democrat Sandra Christophe is only 456 votes behind Harris, so it appears a few more days will pass before the second runoff participant is determined.
New York: Like California, the Empire State has a large number (8) of uncalled US House campaigns. Absentee ballot counting will begin tomorrow, so we may see some winners declared by the end of the week. Republican Nicole Malliotakis has declared victory over Rep. Max Rose (D-Staten Island), but the race remains officially uncalled.
The undetermined New York campaigns are listed below:
• NY-1: Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) – 61.3%; 65,129 vote margin (Nancy Goroff)
• NY-2: Anthony Garbarino (R) – 58.0%; 45,797 votes (Jackie Gordon)
• NY-3: George Santos (R) – 50.5%; 4,185 votes (Rep. Tom Suozzi)
• NY-11: Nicole Malliotakis (R) – 57.9%; 37,158 votes (Rep. Max Rose)
• NY-18: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) – 51.0%; 7,564 votes (Chele Farley)
• NY-19: Rep. Antonio Delgado (D) – 50.3%; 7,389 votes (Kyle Van De Water)
• NY-22: Claudia Tenney (R) – 54.9%; 29,735 votes (Rep. Anthony Brindisi)
• NY-24: Rep. John Katko (R) – 58.5%; 55,102 votes (Dana Balter)
TX-24: Ex-Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne (R) holds a 4,625-vote lead over former local school board member Candace Valenzuela (D) with apparently only provisional ballots remaining to be ruled upon and added to the count. The eventual DFW area winner replaces retiring Rep. Kenny Marchant (R-Coppell).
UT-4: With only 84 percent of the vote showing, Utah’s 4th District, as was the case here in 2018, will again be decided by only a handful of votes. Currently, in what has become a seesaw counting affair, former NFL football player Burgess Owens (R) holds a 688-vote edge over Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Salt Lake City).
VA-7: In a race that will soon be called, Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) after trailing for most of the counting period, now has 4,783-vote lead over state Delegate Nick Freitas (R) that seems certain to hold.