The Early Delegate Projections

By Jim Ellis

June 25, 2019 — There have been several important state polls recently released that provide us data about where the Democratic presidential candidates stand in relation to popular preference. But that is only half the story.

In order to gauge where the candidates might stand in terms of delegate apportionment, we have taken the available published polls from 16 states and began extrapolating a reasonable delegate projection for each.

For purposes of this exercise, all of the polling data is considered accurate, even though in some instances such a conclusion is a stretch. Additionally, these projections were only based upon the at-large numbers but understand more than half of the delegates come from the state’s chosen districts (usually congressional district, though Texas uses their state Senate seats).

It is reasonable to believe, however, that the district apportionment will, in most cases, be similar to the statewide total. At this point, the at-large ratios are the only data set from which we can begin to draw statistical conclusions.

With that short background, the states and their most recent polling result are listed below along with our unofficial delegate projections listed in chronological order based upon voting schedule:

February 3

Iowa Caucus

(YouGov – May 31-June 12; 587 likely Iowa Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 41

Biden 30%
Sanders 22%
Warren 12%
Buttigieg 11%

Delegate Projection:

Biden 15
Sanders 11
Warren   8
Buttigieg   7

February 11

New Hampshire Primary

(YouGov – May 31-June 12; 502 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 24

Biden 33%
Sanders 20%
Warren 17%
Buttigieg 10%

Delegate Projection:

Biden 9
Sanders 6
Warren 5
Buttigieg 4

February 22

Nevada Caucus

(Monmouth Univ. – June 6-11; 370 likely Nevada Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 36

Biden 36%
Warren 19%
Sanders 13%

Delegate Projection:

Biden 18
Warren 10
Sanders   8

February 29

South Carolina Primary

(Change Research – June 11-14; 933 likely South Carolina Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 54

Biden 37%
Warren 17%
Buttigieg 11%

Delegate Projection:

Biden 29
Warren 14
Buttigieg 11

March 3

California

(UC Berkeley – June 4-10; 2,131 likely California Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 416

Delegate Projection:

Biden 22%
Warren 18%
Sanders 18%
Harris 13%
Buttigieg 10%
Biden 105
Warren   86
Sanders   81
Harris 873
Buttigieg   71

Massachusetts

(Suffolk Univ. – June 5-9; 370 likely Massachusetts Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 91

Biden 22%
Warren 10%

Delegate Projection:

Biden 54
Warren 37

Minnesota

(Change Research; June 8-12; 772 likely Minnesota Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 75

Warren 21%
Biden 20%
Sanders 19%
Klobuchar 16%
Buttigieg 11%

Delegate Projection:

Warren 18
Biden 17
Sanders 15
Klobuchar 13
Buttigieg 12

Texas

(YouGov – May 31-June 9; 483 likely Texas Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 228

Biden 23%
O’Rourke 15%
Warren 14%
Sanders 12%

Delegate Projection:

Biden 76
O’Rourke 53
Warren 50
Sanders 49

Virginia

(Hampton University – May 29-June 6; 1,126 registered Virginia voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 99

Biden 36%
Sanders 20%
Warren 18%
Buttigieg 18%

Delegate Projection:

Biden 43
Sanders 20
Warren 18
Buttigieg 18

Michigan

(Zogby Interactive – May 23-29; 268 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 125

Biden 27%
Sanders 18%

Delegate Projection:

Biden 75
Sanders 50

March 10

Ohio

(Zogby Interactive – May 23-29; 222 likely Ohio Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 136

Biden 29%
Sanders 19%
Warren 12%

Delegate Projection:

Biden 49
Sanders 43
Warren 34

Arizona

(Zogby Interactive – May 23-29; 197 likely Arizona Democratic primary voters)
First-Ballot Delegates: 67

Biden 35%
Sanders 16%
Warren 10%

Delegate Projection:

Biden 35
Sanders 17
Warren 15

March 17

Florida

(Change Research – June 16-17; 1,130 likely Florida Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 219

Biden 33%
Sanders 20%
Buttigieg 15%
Warren 15%

Delegate Projection:

Biden 87
Sanders 53
Buttigieg 40
Warren 39

April 7

Wisconsin

(Zogby Interactive – May 23-29; 238 likely Wisconsin Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 77

Biden 20%
Warren 14%
Sanders 13%

Delegate Projection:

Biden 31
Warren 23
Sanders 23

April 28

Pennsylvania

(Zogby Interactive – May 23-29; 246 likely Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 153

Biden 46%
Warren 15%

Delegate Projection:

Biden 115
Warren   38

Total Delegate Projection:

Biden    746 40.5%
Warren    394 15.0%
Sanders    375 20.4%
Buttigieg    200 10.9%
Harris      73  3.9%
O’Rourke      53  2.9%
Total 1,841 48.8% of available delegates

These aggregate totals are rudimentary, but they do give us an idea of whether former Vice President Joe Biden would, in relation to his current standing, have enough support to obtain a 50 percent win on the first ballot at the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee that will begin July 13, 2020. These numbers suggest he may have to go to a second ballot to win the nomination, but his support among the Super Delegates would likely be strong enough to deliver him the nomination.

Still, several other candidates such as Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and possibly Mayor Pete Buttigieg could develop enough strength to challenge Biden or even force a contested convention.

Developments throughout the coming months will affect and clearly alter the outcome. But, it is important to remember that polling standing is not the only factor in choosing the party nominee. The popular vote has the function of choosing the convention delegates, thus the presidential process is far more complicated and cumbersome than any other American election.

With 24 candidates beginning their own personal quests for the nation’s highest office, the complexity of the nomination process yields many potential victory scenarios.

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