By Jim Ellis
June 25, 2019 — There have been several important state polls recently released that provide us data about where the Democratic presidential candidates stand in relation to popular preference. But that is only half the story.
In order to gauge where the candidates might stand in terms of delegate apportionment, we have taken the available published polls from 16 states and began extrapolating a reasonable delegate projection for each.
For purposes of this exercise, all of the polling data is considered accurate, even though in some instances such a conclusion is a stretch. Additionally, these projections were only based upon the at-large numbers but understand more than half of the delegates come from the state’s chosen districts (usually congressional district, though Texas uses their state Senate seats).
It is reasonable to believe, however, that the district apportionment will, in most cases, be similar to the statewide total. At this point, the at-large ratios are the only data set from which we can begin to draw statistical conclusions.
With that short background, the states and their most recent polling result are listed below along with our unofficial delegate projections listed in chronological order based upon voting schedule:
February 3
Iowa Caucus
(YouGov – May 31-June 12; 587 likely Iowa Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 41
Biden | 30% |
Sanders | 22% |
Warren | 12% |
Buttigieg | 11% |
Delegate Projection:
Biden | 15 |
Sanders | 11 |
Warren | 8 |
Buttigieg | 7 |
February 11
New Hampshire Primary
(YouGov – May 31-June 12; 502 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 24
Biden | 33% |
Sanders | 20% |
Warren | 17% |
Buttigieg | 10% |
Delegate Projection:
Biden | 9 |
Sanders | 6 |
Warren | 5 |
Buttigieg | 4 |
February 22
Nevada Caucus
(Monmouth Univ. – June 6-11; 370 likely Nevada Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 36
Biden | 36% |
Warren | 19% |
Sanders | 13% |
Delegate Projection:
Biden | 18 |
Warren | 10 |
Sanders | 8 |
February 29
South Carolina Primary
(Change Research – June 11-14; 933 likely South Carolina Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 54
Biden | 37% |
Warren | 17% |
Buttigieg | 11% |
Delegate Projection:
Biden | 29 |
Warren | 14 |
Buttigieg | 11 |
March 3
California
(UC Berkeley – June 4-10; 2,131 likely California Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 416
Biden | 22% |
Warren | 18% |
Sanders | 18% |
Harris | 13% |
Buttigieg | 10% |
Biden | 105 |
Warren | 86 |
Sanders | 81 |
Harris | 873 |
Buttigieg | 71 |
Massachusetts
(Suffolk Univ. – June 5-9; 370 likely Massachusetts Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 91
Biden | 22% |
Warren | 10% |
Delegate Projection:
Biden | 54 |
Warren | 37 |
Minnesota
(Change Research; June 8-12; 772 likely Minnesota Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 75
Warren | 21% |
Biden | 20% |
Sanders | 19% |
Klobuchar | 16% |
Buttigieg | 11% |
Delegate Projection:
Warren | 18 |
Biden | 17 |
Sanders | 15 |
Klobuchar | 13 |
Buttigieg | 12 |
Texas
(YouGov – May 31-June 9; 483 likely Texas Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 228
Biden | 23% |
O’Rourke | 15% |
Warren | 14% |
Sanders | 12% |
Delegate Projection:
Biden | 76 |
O’Rourke | 53 |
Warren | 50 |
Sanders | 49 |
Virginia
(Hampton University – May 29-June 6; 1,126 registered Virginia voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 99
Biden | 36% |
Sanders | 20% |
Warren | 18% |
Buttigieg | 18% |
Delegate Projection:
Biden | 43 |
Sanders | 20 |
Warren | 18 |
Buttigieg | 18 |
Michigan
(Zogby Interactive – May 23-29; 268 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 125
Biden | 27% |
Sanders | 18% |
Delegate Projection:
Biden | 75 |
Sanders | 50 |
March 10
Ohio
(Zogby Interactive – May 23-29; 222 likely Ohio Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 136
Biden | 29% |
Sanders | 19% |
Warren | 12% |
Delegate Projection:
Biden | 49 |
Sanders | 43 |
Warren | 34 |
Arizona
(Zogby Interactive – May 23-29; 197 likely Arizona Democratic primary voters)
First-Ballot Delegates: 67
Biden | 35% |
Sanders | 16% |
Warren | 10% |
Delegate Projection:
Biden | 35 |
Sanders | 17 |
Warren | 15 |
March 17
Florida
(Change Research – June 16-17; 1,130 likely Florida Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 219
Biden | 33% |
Sanders | 20% |
Buttigieg | 15% |
Warren | 15% |
Delegate Projection:
Biden | 87 |
Sanders | 53 |
Buttigieg | 40 |
Warren | 39 |
April 7
Wisconsin
(Zogby Interactive – May 23-29; 238 likely Wisconsin Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 77
Biden | 20% |
Warren | 14% |
Sanders | 13% |
Delegate Projection:
Biden | 31 |
Warren | 23 |
Sanders | 23 |
April 28
Pennsylvania
(Zogby Interactive – May 23-29; 246 likely Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters)
• First-Ballot Delegates: 153
Biden | 46% |
Warren | 15% |
Delegate Projection:
Biden | 115 |
Warren | 38 |
Total Delegate Projection:
Biden | 746 | 40.5% |
Warren | 394 | 15.0% |
Sanders | 375 | 20.4% |
Buttigieg | 200 | 10.9% |
Harris | 73 | 3.9% |
O’Rourke | 53 | 2.9% |
Total | 1,841 | 48.8% of available delegates |
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These aggregate totals are rudimentary, but they do give us an idea of whether former Vice President Joe Biden would, in relation to his current standing, have enough support to obtain a 50 percent win on the first ballot at the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee that will begin July 13, 2020. These numbers suggest he may have to go to a second ballot to win the nomination, but his support among the Super Delegates would likely be strong enough to deliver him the nomination.
Still, several other candidates such as Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and possibly Mayor Pete Buttigieg could develop enough strength to challenge Biden or even force a contested convention.
Developments throughout the coming months will affect and clearly alter the outcome. But, it is important to remember that polling standing is not the only factor in choosing the party nominee. The popular vote has the function of choosing the convention delegates, thus the presidential process is far more complicated and cumbersome than any other American election.
With 24 candidates beginning their own personal quests for the nation’s highest office, the complexity of the nomination process yields many potential victory scenarios.