Category Archives: Super Tuesday

The Early Primary Cycle

By Jim Ellis

June 6, 2019 — Looking at the 2020 primary calendar, it is obvious that the presidential race is already having an impact upon what is becoming an accelerated congressional campaign schedule in many states.

The analysts for the Daily Kos Elections website released their research posting all of the 2020 state primary dates giving us a better indication of which congressional primaries will be held earlier than their traditional scheduled primary slot.

Several states that have moved to early presidential primary dates have also transferred their entire ballot, meaning the congressional cycle will start earlier than usual for many members and challengers.

Texas and Illinois are typically the first states to hold primary elections, and they are again at the forefront of the congressional calendar. Texas will hold its presidential and congressional nominating elections on March 3, which will become the 2020 Super Tuesday. Illinois, along with Florida and Arizona, will vote on March 17. But, on that date, only Illinois will hold congressional nomination elections.

Next year, however, several other states, will join Texas with a full ballot primary on March 3.

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We Now Have Candidate #22 In
The Race, And Sanders is Falling

By Jim Ellis

May 6, 2019 — A new Democratic presidential candidate entered the race late last week, one whom we didn’t expect to see this soon.

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet

Despite undergoing prostate cancer surgery last month, Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet says he has already received a “clean bill of health” and is embarking upon his national political effort. Now at 22 candidates in the field of Democrats seeking their party’s nomination for the 2020 presidential election, eyes turn to Montana Gov. Steve Bullock who could be the last widely discussed potential candidate yet to make a decision about forming a campaign.

It’s difficult to see how Sen. Bennet breaks through to the top tier, however. He is not well known outside of Colorado and starts well behind most of the field, putting him in a difficult position from which to even qualify for the first two debate forums scheduled for late June and the end of July.

To earn a debate podium, all candidates must either tally at least one percent support in three Democratic National Committee designated polls, or attract financial support from 65,000 donors, from which they must have a minimum of 200 in at least 20 states. For the lesser known candidates, debate participation is a necessity in order to propel themselves into serious contention for the nomination.

Furthermore, Sen. Bennet doesn’t even have his home state electorate to himself. Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper is also in the race, a man who Bennet once served as chief of staff. Just two days ago, Colorado moved its new primary – they used to apportion delegates through the caucus system – to March 3, the 2020 campaign’s Super Tuesday, which could serve to boost one of the two Centennial State candidates. Yet, with both men in the race, the state’s 67 first-ballot delegate contingent will prove less of a base for either one.

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The Real Super Tuesday

March 11, 2016 — March 1 earned the billing of “Super Tuesday” because 13 states held a primary or caucus that day, but the real deciding date at least for Republicans is next week’s Tuesday, March 15.

The true action in the coming days is on the Republican side despite Sen. Bernie Sanders’ upset Michigan victory earlier this week. Should Donald Trump win both the key Winner-Take-All states of Florida (99 delegates) and Ohio (66), he would isolate himself as the only candidate able to win a first ballot victory.

If Trump converts Florida and Ohio, and places first in the proportional states of North Carolina (72 delegates) and Illinois (69), as polling currently suggests, while taking a significant share of the Missouri congressional district Winner-Take-All format (52), he will likely fall into the range of committing approximately 712 delegate votes by next Wednesday morning. This means he would need 53.4 percent of the 983 available delegates from the 22 post-March 15 remaining voting entities in order to secure a first ballot victory.

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Trump, Clinton Knocking on Door

March 3, 2016 — Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump delivered strong performances Tuesday night in their respective Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses, but neither could land the knockout punch for which they hoped.

Clinton continued her dominance in the south, but surprisingly stumbled in Oklahoma. She won seven of the 11 Democratic voting entities Tuesday night (with American Samoa still to report at this writing). Sen. Bernie Sanders, in addition to his 51-41 percent win in Oklahoma, took his home state of Vermont, and the Colorado and Minnesota caucuses.

Clinton was again dominant in the states with large African-American populations and it is probable that she once more attracted approximately 90 percent support within the black community. Sanders, however, is in the superior position among white Democratic voters. Massachusetts was the only northern state that Ms. Clinton carried, but it was close. She finished with 50.3 percent of the Bay State popular vote.

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It’s Not Over Yet

by Jim Ellis

March 2, 2016 — Last night, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump took major steps toward winning their respective Democratic and Republican presidential nominations, but neither delivered a clinching blow. At least for Republicans, one mathematically viable scenario remains to fall into a contested convention (see “The Brokered Scenario” below). It appears we will know on March 15.

The delegate results:

Democrats

Clinton took seven of the 11 voting entities last night (American Samoa still must report) and, adding publicly committed Super Delegates, managed to top the 1,000 delegate-support mark.

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